More news on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill today. I'll try to break things down succinctly as best I can (ie: not succinctly at all).

The Invisible Disaster: The New York Times posted an article today that confirms what we suspected: giant plumes of oil under the surface. Indeed, the floating oil slick is quite literally just the surface of a much bigger problem. The column of oil depletes oxygen from the water, killing sealife.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics: An article on the BBC News website made me scowl. Admittedly, it's a week old, but it includes an infographic that claims that the Deepwater Horizon spill isn't that bad compared with other spills. This is crazy, because it relies on the wildly conservative estimate of "5,000 barrels a day" as quoted by BP officials. BP has refused to revise this number, even though a growing chorus of scientists say the number is at least 20,000 barrels a day and could be as high as 100,000. How do scientists get these numbers? It's because ever since we've had video of the leaking well, scientists have been able to use very well-established methodology relating to fluid dynamics to calculate the rate of flow. So either BP is lying/incompetent, or a lot of resident university scientists are. It think the former is more likely.

This place has a substantial dollar value attached to it: said Carter J. Burke in Aliens, to which Ripey replied, "They can bill me!" First it was the containment dome, now the so-called top-hat. Both of these methods will siphon off most of the oil to the surface where it can be collected and refined (and then sold). But the most likely solution will be to plug the well permanently (possibly with a junk shot, which was suggested very early on and still hasn't been attempted). You can bet that BP will first try everything they can to continue collecting the oil and preserve the investment they made drilling that well. Meanwhile, the environment suffers. (To extend my analogy, I sincerely hope that the only way to be sure does not turn out to be nuking the site from orbit, which could make things much worse.)

Making Comparisons: If Ixtoc I is indeed the worst accidental spill ever, and the quintessential comparison for the current Gulf Oil Spill, we have much to be concerned about. Like the current spill, crews were unable to seal or cap the blowout preventer. The only way to cap the damaged well was to reduce the flow pressure by drilling several relief wells, a process which takes months. Sure it was 30 years ago, and technology has improved, but the Ixtoc crews only had to work 49 meters below the surface, not 1.6 kilometres (they didn't call it "Deepwater" for nothing, folks). Ixtoc I leaked at roughly 30,000 barrels per day. Disregarding BP's incredibly deflated statistics, 30,000 would be at the low end of scientific estimates. If Deepwater Horizon is indeed leaking 50,000 or more barrels a day, and can only be capped once relief wells are drilled, it's well on its way to being the worst accidental oil spill in history.