Yeah, so let's talk about the iPad...

A lot of the tech media are declaring the iPad an instant failure, and while I justly accuse many members of the tech media of smacking Apple around the last 25 years for sport, in this case I'm inclined to agree.

I've already seen some of my peers assembling lists: mostly nitpicky little feature complaints. The fact that it's basically a giant iPhone/iPod Touch also has the free software community up in arms, since there's no way to install software on the thing except through Apple's App Store, or perhaps by jailbreaking it.

Sorry friends, but these are all thin reasons. The big reason the iPad will fail is very simple: there' no market for it.

Honestly: who will buy this thing? Does Steve really expect people will run out and plop down $500, minimum, just so that they can browse the web and doodle on the couch? Hey, I've got an idea: how about I pay $500 more an get an entry-level MacBook?

Three years ago, almost exactly, I declared that the iPhone was "basically the greatest portable deivce ever created". I'm going to brag here: I don't think I was far off. But why? It all goes back to why the iPhone satisfied a years-long fantasy of mine: device aggregation. Why do you need a phone, a PDA, an video iPod, a portable gaming system, etcetera... when you can put them into one device? Isn't a smartphone just a small computer? It doesn't seem like rocket science to me.

Now, Apple is trying to do the opposite: they're going to split the aggregate apart again. This may prove a lot more difficult than they suspect. I regularly carry my phone and laptop around with me. Why should I buy an iPad if I have both, or either?

Well, Steve will maybe direct me towards the fact that he got five major book publishers on board for iBooks. To that I would say that eReaders generally suck. I can get the latest paperback novel at my local chapters for 7 bucks. It's very durable, and comes bundled with a very intuitive user interface. Media storage format, the bookshelf, is also quite cheap and highly decorative. No, even Amazon can stick its Kindle in the trash. For this tech-addict, paper books are here to stay for a good while yet.

Steve will choke back his notorious temper and tell me how much nicer it will be to browse the web on the couch with the iPad instead of having a potentially cumbersome and hot notebook computer on my lap. In rebuttal, I will direct him towards the iPad's monumental failing as a web browser: no Flash. Millions of websites use Adobe Flash, and honestly, if you don't have Flash, you don't have a decent web browser.

So who will buy the iPad? Rich yuppies who have money to burn. But there are only so many of them. Trust me, I can see a yuppie-toy from fifty yards away. How many Macbook Airs have you seen lately? Exactly.

About the most interesting thing that came out of the entire keynote was the revelation that the iPad is running on an Apple-designed processor: the "A4" (or more accurately, a 4th generation ARM-based system on a chip originally developed by ARM Holdings and subsequently licensed to many different companies, including Intel, nVidia, and Qualcomm for further development. you can read more about the ARM architecture here if you're not asleep already).

Look, we all knew the Apple magic wouldn't last forever (investors certainly think so, Apple's stock price has tanked this week by over $20). Look Steve, just try harder next time. Stop thinking about those rich yuppies with money. Stop thinking about futuristic gadgets you've wanted to build since Star Trek: The Next Generation was on TV. People need to get stuff done, and Apple gadgets have, until now, let them get stuff done, have fun, and look cool while doing it. That's a killer combination, but I don't think the iPad will do any of those things well enough to be a success.

It's okay. We'll forgive you.... someday.